Asset Class of Vintage Cars During the Pandemic: Sales at High End on Ice, After Steep Price Drops Earlier in the Year
Affordable Classics rise the most, American Muscle Cars fall the most. Ferraris flat, after big drops earlier. Beautiful machines all of them.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Selling these beautiful machines, from American muscle cars to rare Ferraris, got a lot tougher during the Pandemic, after it had already gotten tough before the Pandemic. Auction activity in August dropped to the lowest level since August 2010, according to vintage-auto insurer Hagerty’s September report.
The big event for classic cars was Monterey Car Week in August, normally a series of auctions spread over the Monterey Peninsula, in California, where some of the rarest and most sought-after cars were sold each year. But this August, the auctions took place mostly via online or phone bidding, and some closed-room bidding, and in reduced capacity. The anchor event, the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance, was canceled. And the limited auctions that did take place didn’t even take place in Monterey. So maybe next year.
The overall results in terms of volume and high-end sales at the Monterey Auctions were so lousy that they cannot even be compared to last year’s Monterey Auctions as such comparisons “would yield misleading results,” said Hagerty in its report on the auctions.
Last year’s Monterey auctions had already been rough, crowned by the phenomenal fiasco of the now infamous non-Porsche prototype that RM Sotheby had billed as “1939 Porsche Type 64” and as “the most historically important Porsche ever publicly offered,” with a predicted selling price “in excess of $20 million,” though Porsche AG itself, which was founded a decade after this car was built, resolutely refused to claim it. In a hilarious mess, with fake displays of bids jumping to $70 million, the whole thing collapsed, the car didn’t sell, and the rest of the auctions went to heck.
But two years ago, at the 2018 Monterey auctions, two records were set: a 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO sold for $48.4 million, the highest price ever paid for any car; and a 1935 Duesenberg SSJ Roadster sold for $22 million, the highest price ever paid for an American car. That was the spirit!
At the Monterey auctions this year, no high-end cars were sold. Online auctions still don’t seem to cut it for cars that cost many millions of dollars.
Among Hagerty’s seven primary indices, which are updated three times a year (January, May, and September), “1960s American Muscle Cars” saw the steepest price declines. And the “Affordable Classics” experienced the biggest price gains. Below are six of the seven:
The Ferrari Index:
“Given the name recognition, racing pedigree, and exclusivity, Ferraris tend to lead the market, so keep an eye on this group,” Hagerty says. The Ferrari Index averages the prices of 13 of the “most sought-after street Ferraris of the 1950s-70s.” In September, the average price was unchanged from May.
But the May average price had dropped by about 8% from January, its “largest ever drop,” according to Hagerty, and was down 15% from the peak in January 2016 ($5.7 million), after having soared seven-fold from 2007. The May drop took the average price back to 2014 levels (chart via Hagerty).
The drop in May was powered by a plunge in the price of two of the 13 components:
- 1958 250 California LWB 2dr Spider: $12.6 million in 2018; in 2919, ticked down 1.5%; though May 2020, plunged by 23.4% to $9.5 million, -25% in total. Unchanged in September.
- 1963 250 GT SWB 2dr Coupe: $9.7 million in 2018; -3% in 2019, then -18% through the May 2020 to $7.7 million, -21% in total. Unchanged in September.
In September, eight of the 13 Ferraris in the index experienced no price change from May; three experienced slight price declines and two experienced slight price increases. Here are the 13 Ferraris in the index (if your smartphone clips the fifth column, hold your device in landscape position):
| Ferraris, prices in “good” condition | Sep-2018 | Sep-2019 | May-2020 | Sep-2020 |
| 1966 Ferrari 330 GT SII 2dr Coupe 2+2 12-cyl. 3967cc/300hp | 250,000 | 237,000 | 216,000 | 215,000 |
| 1957 Ferrari 410 Superamerica SIII 2dr Coupe (closed headlight) 12-cyl. 4963cc/340hp | 3,200,000 | 3,200,000 | 3,200,000 | 3,200,000 |
| 1963 Ferrari 250 LM 2dr Coupe 12-cyl. 3286cc/320hp | 18,000,000 | 18,000,000 | 18,000,000 | 18,000,000 |
| 1968 Ferrari 330 GTC 2dr Coupe 12-cyl. 3967cc/300hp | 605,000 | 565,000 | 509,000 | 505,000 |
| 1958 Ferrari 250 California LWB 2dr Spider (closed headlight) 12-cyl. 2953cc/240hp | 12,600,000 | 12,400,000 | 9,500,000 | 9,500,000 |
| 1972 Ferrari Dino 246 GTS 2dr Spider 6-cyl. 2419cc/195hp | 302,000 | 284,000 | 284,000 | 285,000 |
| 1972 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona 2dr Coupe 12-cyl. 4390cc/352hp | 700,000 | 530,000 | 530,000 | 515,000 |
| 1963 Ferrari 250 GT Lusso 2dr Coupe 12-cyl. 2953cc/240hp | 1,700,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,050,000 |
| 1960 Ferrari 250 GT 2dr Coupe 12-cyl. 2953cc/240hp | 656,000 | 630,000 | 600,000 | 600,000 |
| 1972 Ferrari 365 GTS/4 Daytona 2dr Spider 12-cyl. 4390cc/352hp | 2,150,000 | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 |
| 1963 Ferrari 250 California SWB 2dr Spider (closed headlight) 12-cyl. 2953cc/280hp | 14,100,000 | 14,100,000 | 14,100,000 | 14,100,000 |
| 1963 Ferrari 250 GT SWB 2dr Coupe 12-cyl. 2953cc/280hp | 9,700,000 | 9,400,000 | 7,700,000 | 7,700,000 |
| 1968 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 2dr Coupe 12-cyl. 3286cc/320hp | 2,500,000 | 2,250,000 | 1,950,000 | 1,950,000 |
For some of the Ferraris that are not in the index, the price changes were larger, Hagerty reported. Prices of Testarossas, after a “three-year slump,” jumped 13% in the September update. And 308/328s, 575Ms, and 348s had “significant gains,” but prices of 456Ms “dropped slightly” and the 355, after a sharp increase last year, “took a step back.”
The Index of 1960s American muscle cars.
This index, which averages the price of the 15 “rarest and most sought-after muscle cars,” fell for the fifth update in a row and for the eighth of the past nine updates, now down 18% from its peak in January 2018. But the May and September drops were only around 1% each, compared to the plunges in the prior two periods. The average price is back where it had first been in 2007 (chart via Hagerty):
While the prices of 13 machines in the index remained flat since May, two cars took the blame for the drop of the index:
- 1969 Mustang Boss 429, at $162,000: -10% since May, and -29% since September 2018 ($229,000).
- 1969 Hemi Charger 500, at $128,000: -8% since May after having been unchanged for the past three years.
Here are the 15 components of the index:
| 1960s American Muscle cars; prices in “good” condition | Sep-2018 | Sep-2019 | May-2020 | Sep-2020 |
| 1970 Plymouth Road Runner Superbird 2dr Hardtop Coupe 8-cyl. 426cid/425hp 2x4bbl Hemi | 222,000 | 222,000 | 222,000 | 222,000 |
| 1965 Pontiac LeMans GTO 2dr Convertible 8-cyl. 389cid/360hp | 62,600 | 62,600 | 62,600 | 62,600 |
| 1968 Mercury Cougar GT-E 2dr Hardtop Coupe 8-cyl. 428cid/335hp | 79,900 | 79,900 | 79,900 | 79,900 |
| 1968 Chevrolet Camaro Yenko 2dr Sport Coupe 8-cyl. 427cid/425hp | 351,000 | 309,000 | 315,000 | 309,000 |
| 1969 American Motors AMX SS 2dr Fastback 8-cyl. 390cid/340hp | 67,800 | 67,800 | 67,800 | 67,800 |
| 1965 Shelby GT350 2dr Fastback 8-cyl. 289cid/306hp | 378,000 | 368,000 | 368,000 | 368,000 |
| 1970 Plymouth Cuda AAR 2dr Hardtop Coupe 8-cyl. 340cid/290hp | 73,300 | 63,000 | 59,200 | 59,200 |
| 1968 Shelby GT500 KR 2dr Convertible 8-cyl. 428cid/335hp | 155,000 | 136,000 | 136,000 | 136,000 |
| 1970 Chevrolet Chevelle SS 454 2dr Sport Coupe 8-cyl. 454cid/450hp | 99,500 | 88,700 | 86,900 | 86,900 |
| 1970 Plymouth Cuda 2dr Convertible 8-cyl. 426cid/425hp | 1,500,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,100,000 |
| 1970 Buick GS 455 2dr Convertible 8-cyl. 455cid/350hp | 29,500 | 32,200 | 32,200 | 32,200 |
| 1970 Oldsmobile 4-4-2 W-30 2dr Holiday Coupe 8-cyl. 455cid/370hp | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 | 70,800 |
| 1969 Dodge Charger 500 2dr Hardtop Coupe 8-cyl. 426cid/425hp | 139,000 | 139,000 | 139,000 | 128,000 |
| 1964 Chevrolet Impala SS 2dr Convertible 8-cyl. 409cid/425hp | 68,200 | 66,800 | 54,500 | 54,500 |
| 1969 Ford Mustang Boss 429 2dr SportsRoof 8-cyl. 429cid/375hp | 229,000 | 200,000 | 180,000 | 162,000 |
Affordable Classics Index.
Collectible cars priced under $30,000 continue to do well, inching up to an all-time high in September.
Only one of the 13 components fell – the 1971 Datsun 240Z, which had hit a record of $20,000 in May, having about doubled in six years; “clean examples are now well beyond the point of affordability,” Hagerty says. Five components rose, and the remainder were unchanged:
| Affordable Classics, Prices in “good” condition | Sep-2018 | Sep-2019 | May-2020 | Sep-2020 |
| 1967 Volkswagen Beetle 2dr Sedan 4-cyl. 1493cc/53hp | 11,600 | 12,900 | 16,100 | 16,100 |
| 1969 American Motors Javelin 2dr Fastback 8-cyl. 343cid/280hp | 13,600 | 13,600 | 13,600 | 13,600 |
| 1949 Buick Roadmaster Model 76S 2dr Sedanet 8-cyl. 320cid/150hp | 14,600 | 14,600 | 17,500 | 17,500 |
| 1967 Volkswagen Karmann Ghia 2dr Coupe 4-cyl. 1493cc/53hp | 13,900 | 13,900 | 16,200 | 16,800 |
| 1972 Porsche 914 2.0 2dr Targa 4-cyl. 1971cc/91hp | 19,300 | 20,000 | 20,000 | 20,000 |
| 1963 MG MGB Mk I 2dr Roadster 4-cyl. 1798cc/95hp | 9,900 | 9,800 | 9,700 | 9,800 |
| 1971 Datsun 240Z 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 2393cc/151hp | 18,200 | 18,200 | 20,000 | 19,400 |
| 1965 Chevrolet Corvair Monza 2dr Convertible 6-cyl. 164cid/110hp | 12,500 | 12,500 | 12,500 | 11,900 |
| 1965 Ford Mustang GT 2dr Coupe 8-cyl. 289cid/225hp | 24,700 | 24,900 | 25,600 | 27,900 |
| 1972 Triumph TR6 2dr Convertible 6-cyl. 2498cc/106hp | 12,900 | 13,100 | 13,200 | 13,300 |
| 1963 Studebaker Avanti 2dr Coupe 8-cyl. 289cid/240hp | 19,700 | 19,700 | 19,700 | 19,700 |
| 1962 Studebaker Lark Regal 2dr Convertible 6-cyl. 170cid/112hp | 14,100 | 14,100 | 14,100 | 14,100 |
| 1970 Chevrolet Camaro SS 2dr Sport Coupe 8-cyl. 350cid/300hp | 21,300 | 24,400 | 24,400 | 24,400 |
Index of post-war German collectible cars.
After the boom from 2013 to 2016, prices declined into 2018 and then mostly leveled off. In the May update, the average price ticked down a tad, and in the September update remained unchanged.
Of the 22 components in the index, 17 were unchanged. Two experienced price gains: the 1970 Mercedes-Benz 600 (+5%) and the 1971 Mercedes-Benz 280SL (+15%). Four experienced price declines, the biggest decliner being the 1970 Porsche 911 Carrera Turbo (-8.4%):
| Post-war German Classics, prices in good condition | Sep-2018 | Sep-2019 | May-2020 | Sep-2020 |
| 1957 Mercedes-Benz 300SL Gullwing 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 2996cc/240hp | 1,300,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,200,000 | 1,200,000 |
| 1970 Mercedes-Benz 280SE 3.5 2dr Cabriolet 8-cyl. 3499cc/230hp | 258,000 | 215,000 | 215,000 | 215,000 |
| 1965 Porsche 356C 1600 SC 2dr Coupe 4-cyl. 1582cc/95hp | 108,000 | 110,000 | 110,000 | 110,000 |
| 1962 Mercedes-Benz 190SL 2dr Convertible 4-cyl. 1897cc/120h | 92,500 | 87,100 | 87,100 | 87,100 |
| 1972 Porsche 911 S 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 2341cc/210hp | 128,000 | 122,000 | 122,000 | 122,000 |
| 1956 Porsche 356A 1500 GS Carrera 2dr Speedster 4-cyl. 1498cc/128hp | 1,100,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 |
| 1959 Porsche 356A 1600 Super 2dr Coupe 4-cyl. 1582cc/88hp | 119,000 | 119,000 | 97,000 | 97,000 |
| 1948 Porsche 356 Gmund 2dr Coupe 4-cyl. 1086cc/46hp | 950,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 |
| 1971 Mercedes-Benz 280SL 2dr Convertible 6-cyl. 2778cc/180hp | 66,100 | 57,900 | 60,200 | 69,200 |
| 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300Sc 2dr Cabriolet 6-cyl. 2996cc/175hp | 865,000 | 865,000 | 830,000 | 800,000 |
| 1962 Porsche 356B S90 2dr Roadster 4-cyl. 1582cc/90hp | 181,000 | 181,000 | 160,000 | 160,000 |
| 1963 Mercedes-Benz 300SL 2dr Roadster 6-cyl. 2996cc/250hp | 1,350,000 | 1,350,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,250,000 |
| 1973 BMW 3.0CSL Batmobile 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 3003cc/200hp | 197,000 | 197,000 | 197,000 | 197,000 |
| 1967 Porsche 911 S 2dr Targa 6-cyl. 1991cc/180hp | 173,000 | 166,000 | 159,000 | 159,000 |
| 1979 BMW M1 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 3453cc/277hp | 528,000 | 440,000 | 420,000 | 420,000 |
| 1973 Porsche 911 Carrera RS 2.7 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 2687cc/210hp | 489,000 | 425,000 | 365,000 | 360,000 |
| 1979 Porsche 911 Carrera Turbo 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 3299cc/265hp | 118,000 | 100,000 | 89,000 | 81,500 |
| 1958 Porsche 356A 1600 Super 2dr Speedster 4-cyl. 1582cc/88hp | 305,000 | 305,000 | 288,000 | 288,000 |
| 1973 BMW 2002tii 2dr Sedan 4-cyl. 1990cc/130hp | 28,100 | 30,000 | 32,400 | 32,400 |
| 1970 Mercedes-Benz 600 4dr Sedan 8-cyl. 6329cc/300hp | 78,400 | 94,300 | 94,300 | 99,000 |
| 1959 BMW 507 2dr Roadster 8-cyl. 3168cc/150hp | 2,150,000 | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 |
Index of post-war British collectible cars.
After dropping to a five-year low in the May reading, the index ticked up 1% in the September reading:
The 1% rise in the index was largely a mix of two big moves in opposite directions: the 1954 Jaguar XK 120 roadster jumped 11%; and the 1956 Austin-Healey Le Mans Roadster fell 7.1%:
| Post-war British Classics, prices in good condition | Sep-2018 | Sep-2019 | May-2020 | Sep-2020 |
| 1963 MG MGB Mk I 2dr Roadster 4-cyl. 1798cc/95hp | 9,900 | 9,800 | 9,700 | 9,800 |
| 1961 MG MGA 1600 Mk I 2dr Roadster 4-cyl. 1588cc/78hp | 16,800 | 16,400 | 16,800 | 16,800 |
| 1955 MG TF 1500 2dr Roadster 4-cyl. 1466cc/63hp | 28,500 | 26,500 | 25,800 | 25,700 |
| 1972 Triumph TR6 2dr Convertible 6-cyl. 2498cc/106hp | 12,900 | 13,100 | 13,200 | 13,300 |
| 1956 Austin-Healey 100 M BN2 Le Mans 2dr Roadster 4-cyl. 2660cc/110hp | 144,000 | 140,000 | 140,000 | 130,000 |
| 1967 Sunbeam Tiger Mk II 2dr Convertible 8-cyl. 4737cc/200hp | 104,000 | 105,000 | 105,000 | 105,000 |
| 1965 Jaguar E-Type SI 4.2 2dr Roadster 6-cyl. 4235cc/265hp | 118,000 | 138,000 | 98,100 | 98,100 |
| 1962 Triumph TR3A 2dr Roadster 4-cyl. 1991cc/100hp | 19,200 | 18,100 | 18,000 | 17,900 |
| 1964 Austin-Healey 3000 Mk III BJ8 2dr Convertible 6-cyl. 2912cc/150hp | 39,500 | 40,000 | 39,800 | 39,800 |
| 1954 Jaguar XK 120 2dr Roadster 6-cyl. 3442cc/160hp | 89,300 | 89,300 | 71,600 | 79,500 |
The “Blue Chip” Index of the Automotive A-List.
This index of the “25 of the most sought-after collectible automobiles of the post-war era,” after having plunged 7% in May, and 14% from January 2018, ticked up in the September update. But note over the 2013-2014 period, the average price doubled, and since 2007, it quadrupled! In other words, this was a red-hot asset class over the years through 2018:
The index includes a few of the cars in the individual indices above, and many that are not in the above indices, such as the 1971 Lamborghini Miura, the 1967 Chevrolet Corvette, 1966 Shelby Cobra, the 1969 Toyota 2000GT, the 1959 Maserati 5000GT, to name a few. Here are the 25 components:
| “Blue Chip” Index of the Automotive A-List | Sep-2018 | Sep-2019 | May-2020 | Sep-2020 |
| 1967 Chevrolet Corvette 2dr Convertible 8-cyl. 427cid/435hp | 126,000 | 117,000 | 111,000 | 111,000 |
| 1957 Mercedes-Benz 300SL Gullwing 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 2996cc/240hp | 1,300,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,200,000 | 1,200,000 |
| 1966 Shelby Cobra 427 (CSX3300 – CSX3360) 2dr Roadster 8-cyl. 427cid/425h | 1,050,000 | 1,050,000 | 1,050,000 | 1,050,000 |
| 1965 Shelby GT350 2dr Fastback 8-cyl. 289cid/306hp | 378,000 | 368,000 | 368,000 | 368,000 |
| 1969 Toyota 2000GT 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 1988cc/150hp | 660,000 | 550,000 | 550,000 | 550,000 |
| 1959 Maserati 5000GT Frua 2dr Coupe 8-cyl. 4941cc/380hp | 2,100,000 | 2,100,000 | 2,100,000 | 2,100,000 |
| 1958 Ferrari 250 California LWB 2dr Spider (closed headlight) 12-cyl. 2953cc/240hp | 12,600,000 | 12,400,000 | 9,500,000 | 9,500,000 |
| 1954 Lancia Aurelia B24 2dr Spider America 6-cyl. 2451cc/118hp | 990,000 | 990,000 | 713,000 | 713,000 |
| 1972 Iso Grifo IR9 Can Am 2dr Coupe 8-cyl. 6998cc/400hp | 389,000 | 403,000 | 407,000 | 407,000 |
| 1970 Plymouth Cuda 2dr Convertible 8-cyl. 426cid/425hp | 1,500,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,100,000 |
| 1958 Bentley S1 Continental Coachbuilt 2dr Drophead Coupe 6-cyl. 4887cc/178hp | 975,000 | 975,000 | 975,000 | 975,000 |
| 1964 Alfa Romeo TZ-2 2dr Coupe 4-cyl. 1570cc/112hp | 2,600,000 | 2,600,000 | 2,600,000 | 2,600,000 |
| 1963 Mercedes-Benz 300SL 2dr Roadster 6-cyl. 2996cc/250hp | 1,350,000 | 1,350,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,250,000 |
| 1953 Chevrolet Corvette 2dr Roadster 6-cyl. 235cid/150hp | 206,000 | 189,000 | 166,000 | 166,000 |
| 1965 Aston Martin DB5 2dr Saloon 6-cyl. 3995cc/282hp | 825,000 | 820,000 | 736,000 | 726,000 |
| 1973 Porsche 911 Carrera RS 2.7 2dr Coupe 6-cyl. 2687cc/210hp | 489,000 | 425,000 | 365,000 | 360,000 |
| 1948 Tucker 48 4dr Sedan 6-cyl. 335cid/166hp | 1,400,000 | 1,250,000 | 1,250,000 | 1,250,000 |
| 1963 Shelby Cobra 289 R&P 2dr Roadster 8-cyl. 289cid/271hp | 950,000 | 950,000 | 902,000 | 902,000 |
| 1954 Jaguar D-Type 2dr Roadster 6-cyl. 3442cc/250hp | 4,400,000 | 3,800,000 | 3,600,000 | 4,000,000 |
| 1958 Porsche 356A 1600 Super 2dr Speedster 4-cyl. 1582cc/88hp | 305,000 | 305,000 | 288,000 | 288,000 |
| 1963 Ferrari 250 California SWB 2dr Spider (closed headlight) 12-cyl. 2953cc/280hp | 14,100,000 | 14,100,000 | 14,100,000 | 14,100,000 |
| 1957 Rolls-Royce Silver Cloud I HJ Mulliner 2dr Drophead Coupe 6-cyl. 4887cc/NA | 401,000 | 397,000 | 397,000 | 397,000 |
| 1968 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 2dr Coupe 12-cyl. 3286cc/320hp | 2,500,000 | 2,250,000 | 1,950,000 | 1,950,000 |
| 1959 BMW 507 2dr Roadster 8-cyl. 3168cc/150hpl | 2,150,000 | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 |
| 1971 Lamborghini Miura P400 SV 2dr Coupe 12-cyl. 3929cc/385hp | 1,750,000 | 1,750,000 | 1,750,000 | 1,750,000 |
The lack of sales provides stability for classic cars.
Classic cars are not a day-trading thing. Most owners keep their beautiful machines for a long time. So even in the Good Times, trading volume in each car, for each model year, is small. Some rare cars are sold only every now and then. So when live auction volume dries up, as it has now done due to the Pandemic, and as auctions are shifted online but the top end still hasn’t sold anything online, and when private sales are reduced, then a picture emerges of a market that has been put partially on ice. Most owners can hang on to their cars for a while in hopes of waiting out the Pandemic.
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